Hi there, welcome to Broken Play, aka my Saturday morning Substack scribbling, and since you’re here, if you haven’t already, please hit the subscribe button if you don’t mind.
As promised last week, the Christmas decorations are now up in the Pagano household, and I have even resorted to AI to festivize the logo for the time of year that’s in it.
Speaking of AI, I’m afraid I have to hang my head in shame when it comes to our latest preview show on YouTube. When I talk of producing content I often joke about having a “Harpin’ Legal Department” or “Harpin’ Graphic Department” assuming most people know my tongue is firmly in my cheek as I type. The reality is that apart from my excellent group of contributors who join me on pods and take part in our WhatsApp group, the different hats are generally worn by my good salf.
Which means I have come to resort to AI more and more for research to save time, and sadly the same ways AI photos often come out with 6 or 7 fingers on each hand, the data I ask for can be wildly inaccurate.
The Preview show follows a specific template each week, and one mini segment involves looking at the other matches in the round of the weekend for the tournament Leinster or Ireland are playing in that weekend. When it’s Champions Cup time, I do try to include all the Irish provinces which means I have to also keep tabs on the Challenge Cup.
So when setting up the graphic for the video, rather than go to the official Challenge Cup site like I should have done, I relied on AI to provide me with the list of games and for some reason I was told Ulster were playing against the Dragons while Connacht were playing the Cheetahs.
Both were totally wrong, their opponents were in fact Cardiff and Black Lion respectively, and it’s way too late to fix it. I only noticed there was egg on my fac when I was researching for my weekly Dublin FM slot and it dawned on me that Connacht couldn’t possibly be playing away from home two weeks in a row.
I like to think that our Harpin’ group of contributors is a good mix for the podcast.
For the past couple of years I have had two guests per “wrap pod” but this year I trimmed it down to one not only to allow the guest a higher percentage of the time to harp, but also to allow myself to join the conversation more.
We now have a panel of 9 to choose from, with Keego exclusively doing the preview shows (although Mark Jackson’s Premiership insights have seen him step in both last week and this) and the others taking part in a voluntary rotation of sorts.
And by a “mix” I mean a combination of those who currently coach rugby and thus can offer more tactical knowledge, and out and out fans who have followed Leinster & Ireland for years and love to share their thoughts.
On Sunday I was joined by one of the coaches mentioned above, Tom Coleman who looks after the Balbriggan Women’s team and has also helped out with Leinster. In our wrap of the Harlequins match he offered a great analysis of the style of attack the province is trying to bring this season under Tyler Bleyendaal.
Having studied opinions on Leinster Rugby for almost two decades I notice some interesting patterns. There is a realm with a narrative that tends to be negative no matter how well the team is doing, and when we do VERY well, they would go silent altogether, only to re-emerge again the next time the form takes a dip.
Last season was a classic example. Leinster won virtually every match apart from their South African trip before getting ambushed by the Northampton Saints, and when that happened all the “Cullen out” brigade came spilling out of the woodwork, before seeming to retreat “Homer into the bushes” style when the team recovered to win the URC title.
It seems that may not be just a Leinster thing. Munster got off to a flying start this season culminating in an ambush of their own on us at Croker. 5 wins out of 5 suggested Clayton McMillan’s arrival was paying dividends from the off, and when they scored 3 first half tries against the also-100% Stormers at Thomond Park, it really looked as though they’d be unblemished going into Europe.
But since that second half kicked off, things haven’t gone quite so well, and all it has taken is that 40 minutes plus a humbling against their old boss Johann van Graan in Bath to bring about an article like this one.
Don’t get me wrong – I have nothing against criticism of the province. Only this weekend I defended the commenters on our Facebook page who were mostly going negative about the display against Leinster after I got a comment which led to this exchange…
Things took a bit of a dark turn from there – I have redacted his name for this page but if you want to see the full exchange it’s here.
Anyway, my point is that while I wouldn’t go as far as to censor any opinions I considered overly negative, a bit like that commenter I wouldn’t fully understand it. And in the case of this article about Munster’s defeat in Bath, for the most part I can appreciate where the author is coming from, until the very end where it seems like he almost forgets to blame the whole thing on the “IRFU blazers” and their supposed pro-Leinster bias.
It was great to have Cian “RugbyKino” O’Muilleoir back on the wrap pod this weekend, he had been off working on his own podcast “Mudder Rucker” along with Ailbhe O’Nolan focusing on the recent World Cup. Unfortunately it had to be this crazy contest that he came back for, but he still managed to find some positivity in the pandemonium although as you’ll see later down the column, one of his analogies did not go down too well with fans of a certain literary work/motion picture series. ICYMI click here to check out the pod.
POTTS OF CASH
“I’m beginning to see some real green shoots of increasing revenues emerging from the Nations Championship.”
Every year the IRFU releases its financial report and according to Chief Executive Keith Potts, things look in decent shape. Deficits aren’t always a bad thing so it would seem he is justified in describing the union’s situation as “robust”. He also seems to be pointing to the new Nations Championship as a possible avenue for more revenue, I suppose we’ll have to wait and see what kind of broadcast deals come with it. To be honest I was kind of surprised there wasn’t one in place when they announced the format, especially given it is a competition that has been mooted for many years now.
From a fan’s point of view, here’s hoping the “robustness” together with the prospect of further growth from external sources means the ticket prices can at very least be held at current levels for a while going forward? We’ll see.
Hi there, welcome to Broken Play, aka my Saturday morning Substack scribbling, and since you’re here, if you haven’t already, please hit the subscribe button if you don’t mind.
Many thanks once more to Hugo Gordon for recording his part in our Preview Show looking ahead to the big match with South Africa, unfortunately our schedules didn’t allow us to record at the same time but we still managed to cover the match pretty well I thought, click here to judge for yourself.
It has been a cold week round these parts, hasn’t been that long since I could easily go outside in a t-shirt yet now we’re digging out the scarves and gloves. It’s the kind of weather that makes even a seasoned rugby fan like myself even just a tiny bit happy not to be heading to the Aviva later on, although I suppose if a free ticket were to fall in my lap by this evening I might change my tune. That’s not a hint to anyone reading this by the way. No, no, I REALLY mean it, it’s not.
So last Sunday due to a late (and totally understandable) withdrawal of my wrap pod guest at the 11th hour I was forced to do it “solo” and I actually surprised myself how relatively unafraid I was to do it. That may sound odd because if I have a podcast, surely I have no trouble talking into a microphone, one would say.
That’s true to an extent, but for the most part I’m very OCD about how I produce content, especially the spoken variety. Some people are much better suited to freewheeling when it coms to talking but I need to be prepared and generally I put the time in producing scripts beforehand, at least for the filler parts like intros, outros and links between segments.
I normally let my guest select the themes from the match in question so what I do is let them harp on them for about 5 minutes or so then we have some back and forth, but I also have what I call my “must mention list” which is a set of points I want to make sure get brought up and although the guest hits most of them anyway, I can offer the rest. So when called upon to do the solo I ended up just going through the list point by point and hey presto I had myself a show.
Anyway my point here is that probably the biggest reason for my improved confidence in these situations is my weekly gig on DublinSouthFM with David Nolan. For full disclosure I had received offers for gigs like these a few times over the years and turned them down, telling people I was too busy and such when the real reason a was a big fat chicken! I guess the thought of not having control over the narrative of an interview spooked me and I preferred to stay in my comfort zone of setting the talking points myself.
But by the time David approached my for this DSFM spot I was well aware that I was long overdue facing this particular fear, so I took it on and now I really enjoy doing it. I mean it’s hardly This Week In Politics…the subject matter is something I know about anyway and more often than not we chat within an hour of finishing my recording for the preview show so it’s not like the subject isn’t fresh in my mind.
We welcome guest posts here at Harpin’ Manor, if you would like to get involved in the conversation forward your articles to paganoblog@gmail.com
For the past decade, Leo Cullen has been the steady hand guiding Leinster Rugby through an era of domestic dominance. Since taking the reins in 2015, Cullen has delivered five United Rugby Championship titles and a Champions Cup triumph in 2018. Yet, despite their glittering squad and attacking flair, Leinster have fallen short on Europe’s biggest stage in recent years—losing four consecutive Champions Cup finals and suffering a semi-final defeat to Northampton in 2025.
Often spoken about as a future Ireland Team Manager, Cullen’s stock has fallen in recent years. The aforementioned European defeats, in particular, have been very damaging. Costly refusals by his teams to “take the three points on offer”, whether by penalty or drop goal, stands in stark contrast to the mindset of the top clubs and international sides – the reigning world champions, South Africa, being a prime example of how to consistently win finals by keeping the scoreboard ticking over.
In comparison to Soccer, Rugby union’s revenue is far smaller and only concentrated in a few regions. Rugby Union relies heavily on Marquee Events, such as the Rugby World Cup, every four years, and British & Irish Lions tours. These events effectively subsidise the rest of the game. Outside these peaks, most unions and clubs operate at a loss. In 2023/24, the top 10 unions posted a combined loss of almost €130 million, and Premiership/Top 14 clubs lost over €90 million. Figures are harder to come by / assess for the Irish provinces, but the IRFU share was recorded as €18.4 million, which led to the discontinuation of the Men’s Sevens programme, earlier this year.
The precarious financial position of Rugby Union finances is a problem for Cullen in that he is perceived, by many, to have underachieved with the resources at his disposal. This makes landing another head coach role in the professional game that bit more challenging for him. Clubs and unions want to extract every last ounce from their teams and not be too calm and/or comfortable with defeats.
Leo Cullen is locked in until 2027, so there’s no immediate vacancy. Yet with the RDS Arena redevelopment set to be unveiled ahead of the 2026 Dublin Horse Show, could Leinster Rugby view a change at the helm as part of their new era? Or, indeed, could Cullen himself decide to move on to new pastures?
With speculation mounting, here are some possible names in the frame to take over:
Jacques Nienaber – The Defensive Mastermind
Currently serving as Leinster’s senior coach, Nienaber arrived fresh from guiding South Africa to back-to-back Rugby World Cup titles. His defensive systems have already tightened Leinster’s game, and his contract runs until 2026. If Cullen moves on, Nienaber is the most logical successor—continuity, pedigree, and proven success at the highest level. Springboks will rarely let their teams turn down three points on offer.
Stuart Lancaster – The Architect of Leinster’s Modern Game
Lancaster’s fingerprints are all over Leinster’s attacking identity. During his tenure (2016–2023), he transformed the province into a powerhouse of skill and structure. After a stint at Racing 92, Lancaster returned to Ireland as Connacht head coach. His familiarity with Leinster’s culture and player development makes him a compelling candidate—if timing aligns.
Michael Cheika – The Maverick Option
Always be wary about the return of a head coach – Warren Gatland and Wales comes to mind! Cheika is a name that sparks debate. The Australian coached Leinster to their first Heineken Cup title in 2009 and has since led national teams and World Cup campaigns. His fiery personality and bold approach could inject fresh energy, but would Leinster gamble on a coach known for volatility?
Internal Promotions – McBryde or Bleyendaal
Robin McBryde (forwards coach) and Tyler Bleyendaal (attack coach) have both signed extensions through 2027. Highly respected within the Leinster setup, they offer continuity if the province opts for evolution rather than revolution. However, neither has head coach experience at this level, which poses a risk. Given the scrum’s standout performance against Munster in an otherwise disappointing defeat, McBryde would likely be the preferred internal candidate over Bleyendaal should Leinster choose to promote from within
External Big Names
Leinster’s job is one of the most coveted in world rugby. Expect speculation around:
Joe Schmidt It is hard to keep up with Schmidt. Since stepping down as Ireland head coach in 2019, he has been the Director of Rugby and High Performance at World Rugby, joined the Blues (Super Rugby) as an assistant coach and became a selector and attack coach for the All Blacks, helping them reach the 2023 Rugby World Cup final (lost narrowly to South Africa). He was then appointed Wallabies head coach in January 2024 on a two-year deal, replacing Eddie Jones, tasked with rebuilding Australia ahead of the 2025 British & Irish Lions tour and preparing for the 2027 Rugby World Cup. He has always stated that he wishes to prioritise family commitments but he does still own a house in Dublin! Again, as with Cheiks, always be wary about the return of a head coach.
Ronan O’Gara Despite being a fully paid up member of Ireland’s “Sparta”, ROG has family ties to Blackrock (The Dublin one!). Very familiar with Leinster, both as a player and a manager, the mere thought of him taking the job would be too much for many of our southern brethren. Archie Macpherson’s description of the legendary Celtic FC manager, Jock Stein, was that he was “A Protestant chieftain of a Catholic clan”. Sport has seen stranger twists. His arrival would have many players on edge long before the first team meeting.
Andy Farrell Although his current contract with the IRFU runs until the end of the 2027 Rugby World Cup, Andy Farrell and Leinster could be a perfect match for each other. He has often highlighted his Irish roots and the sense of community he and his family have found since moving to Dublin. Whilst the life of a rugby coach is often nomadic, Farrell may be reluctant to move again – at least for a while. And who knows, Owen, who will be thirty six in 2027, might decide to join his father as a coach at Leinster? That would be box office!
Eddie Jones The “Davy Fitz” of rugby coaches would certainly get a response! Not going to happen, though. Would be box office times ten!
Rising stars from Super Rugby or the Top 14 Leinster, as a general rule, have tended to recruit well when looking for head coaches. However, it is unlikely that they will look past established candidates this time around.
The Big Question
Leinster’s next head coach must do more than maintain domestic dominance—they need to conquer Europe. Style of play, cultural fit, and timing will all shape the decision. For now, Leo Cullen remains in charge, but the succession debate is only just beginning…
I’m Andy Corbett and I live in Leopardstown, Dublin. I am a huge sports fan but GAA, Rugby (Both Codes) and Football are my favourites. Enjoy a bit of writing here and there but have been advised to stick to my day job.
This article? Let’s just say it’s the lovechild of some wild spitballing with a few mysterious insiders who prefer to remain in the witness protection program…
The above article has been published without editorial modification, and the opinions expressed are solely those of the signed author. Harpin On Rugby is committed to providing a platform for rugby fans to share their views through comments, videos, and articles, provided they meet our moderation standards.
Here at Harpin’ Manor we have made a commitment to cover the Leinster & Ireland senior men;s team rugby by featuring their matches on a weekly basis by way of two pods per contest, one for a preview, and one for a wrap. We do this regardless of the importance of the fixture. So whether it’s a marquee matchup, against Munster at Croker or the All Blacks in Chicago, or an outing that will be virtually forgotten once the full time whistle blows, like against Zebre or Japan (all due respect etc), we’ll be there harpin’ on ‘em.
It’s our way of keeping tabs on the overall rugby scene – we have things like this column to cover the wider world and BlueSky & Facebook to pass comment on things that happen during the week in real time, but it’s the pods that do most of our lifting, and as ever I’m grateful to the team of contributors for joining me for the chats each time. On this occasion it was Conor Cronin sharing his views on the win over Japan, and for this one we reverted to the “Harpin old school” format of covering each half separately and I reckon it worked pretty well. Click here to check it out if you missed it.
GOODMAN YOURSELF
By Goodman and the players’ own admission, Ireland’s backline detail has not been where it needs to be.
Ireland backs coach Andrew Goodman out to get the better of mentor Joe Schmidt
Johnny Watterson – Irish Times
I find it fascinating that Andy Farrell has taken so much stick in articles and social media comments over the past couple of weeks…I mean sure, the buck does stop with him but if his track record at the Irish helm doesn’t earn him any mitigation, surely the fact that he was away from the role for the bulk of 2025, not to mention so was a large contingent of players as well.
So with the Irish attack failing to fire on all cylinders, plus all the lineout woes, you’d think we might be transferring some more focus on the unit coaches, not necessarily to blame in such away that they should be fired necessarily, more to at least acknowledge their responsibility.
Paul O’Connell currently has the lineout in his bailiwick and no doubt will have a plan to sort out the very obvious yips, and when it comes to the attack, there’s Andrew Goodman. I have to say we were never exactly dazzled by his time at Leinster, a province that certainly earned the moniker with “-tainment” tacked on to the name for a reason.
And this makes me wonder, not for the first time, if high ranking positions in the Irish set-up are “promised” more than they are earned. I know this makes me sound like a classic tinfoil hat blogger but I’m just putting this out there – when you’re combing the southern hemisphere for what you consider to be the best coaching talent, is it enough to offer a position within a province, even Leinster, or does it help to have some extra leverage in your back pocket like a promise of a guaranteed promotion after a certain amount of time?
But like I say, that’s just a crackpot theory from the outside…at least in this article Goodman acknowledges there have been issues much like the lineouts (although the two are clearly related given how pretty much all of Ireland’s tries over he last two weekend’s have come following the setpiece working) so we can look forward to seeing how they have been worked on in training.
Needless to say it was a tough wrap, and having already determined that Saturday’s Croke Park disaster reminded me of the Northampton semifinal earlier in the year, we had the added realizations that not only did we host Zebre the following weekend back then as well, but Hugo Gordon also featured on that Saints wrap pod!!!! To be fair, he did a really good job both times highlighting what went wrong while still affording due praise to our southern cousins this time.
Must have been tough for JGP to do an interview so soon after the Croke Park disaster, yet being one of the senior players in the squad it was good to get a sense of where the group is at as they embark on one of the most critical November series for Ireland in a number of years.
Sorry to heap that much pressure on it, but I believe it to be true. After two Six Nations Championships in a row, despite winning another 4 out of 5 this year it was considered a disappointment and with these being the last test matches before the RWC2027 draw, ranking points will be essential, but also it’s about restoring some confidence that we can take forward to the upcoming Six Nations and beyond.
The quote really does give us something to look out for in the Chicago test, we’ll see what it might be.
Hey there thanks for tuning in, especially to the handful of subscribers who have been brave enough to sign on for free to read my scribblings.
And thanks also to Rugby Broadcast for pointing out that there seems to be an issue with Substack emails being sent out, I’m still having my people work on it, my people being me of course. And since I mention RB, I’d be remiss if I didn’t remind you that his account is the best for setting up your rugby TV viewing every weekend, so after you hit the subscribe button here, be sure and do likewise over at his place.
It was a busy week here at Harpin Manor, one that didn’t leave me a whole lot of time to keep to my regular posting schedule but I reckon I just about managed it. Many thanks to Keego for recording his own thoughts ahead of the big match at Croker today since we couldn’t have our regular Friday lunchtime chat. This meant that I could still produce a preview with the two of us in it that pretty much follows the usual format, if you missed it check it out here.
Speaking of the Preview Show, this week’s episode included a mention for a rugby-themed play that’s coming to Dundrum so here’s what I had to say about it…
…I’d like to tell you about a theatre production that’s coming up in the Mill Theatre in Dundrum…if you’ve followed Irish rugby online over the past decade or so you’ll know the name Pat McCarry who wrote for SportsJoe.ie but these days he’s writing plays, and as a tribute to the late great Anthony Axel Foley, who’s anniversary was just on Thursday by the way can’t believe it has been so long…anyway Pat wrote “Soldier Field” which is based on Ireland’s last tangle with the All Blacks in Chicago but also features Axel and the tribute the team paid to him before kickoff. Definitely looks worth checking out, here’s a link to find out more.
Now back to that match at Croker…obviously for my thoughts on the actual rugby you can watch the video, but for here I’d like to harp for a bit on the whole concept of playing matches at the iconic venue. And the simple question is….can rugby fans call it iconic anymore?
After the doom and gloom of the Stormers whitewash the week before, we were determined to look for positives in our second wrap pod, and to be fair, despite a second loss in a row myself & Conor Cronin were well able to find them. I mean, it WAS another loss, and also there was definitely an opportunity to bring home all five points which was thrown away (literally, sorry Sam), but while we did cover the negatives as you can see below we saved it for the bonus chat.
Terrible news for Lewis and his family. Needless to say, the entire rugby community is keeping them in our thoughts.
Multiple comments online contrasting the increase in these tragic announcements with the determination of some to push ahead with the 20-minute red card because apparently the full red cards are “ruining the game”.
One could argue that stories like this do the sport far more damage.
On Saturday mornings I write an article for Substack I call “Broken Play” and here is a sample of the latest one…for the full thing click here, and while you’re there, why not subscribe for free.
Hey there, it’s Saturday morning here at Harpin Manor and as usual I’m up and about before everyone else so it’s time to get scribbling about my thoughts on the latest events in egg-chasing, a topic that does an excellent job of distracting me from all else that’s going on in the world.
Sadly though, the news headlines often bleed into the rugby ones and while the weather is rarely far from our conversation here in Ireland anyway, a certain Storm Amy is currently front and center and has already taken her toll on half the provinces and a quarter of Round 2 of the URC with Edinburgh v Ulster & Connacht v Scarlets already gone by wayside.
At least Leinster are safely ensconced the other side of the world, although one could say they got hit by a Storm(ers) of their own last weekend. Things certainly don’t get any easier for them later this evening as they face a Bulls team in Pretoria who are more than keen to do similar to us after the 2025 Grand Final just a few months ago.
Myself and Keego did our preview show and there was also my weekly Harpin’ slot on Dublin South FM. That airs on Fridays after the 5 o’clock news if you’d ever like to tune in, but I can also include it here for my Substack readers.
So my plan on Friday evening was to settle down with a beer or two to watch Ulster try to keep me top of the Harpin Superbru League (although they’d have had to lose by 5 in the Scottish capital for me to do so; sorry if you’re a fan, I just wasn’t feeling it) but like I said Storm Amy took care of that so instead I watched, or I should probably say half-watched, Dragons v Sharks, mostly to see what the South Africans were like on tour ahead of their trip to the Aviva next weekend.
For about 75 minutes it wasn’t exactly a thriller, but with the scores locked at 17-17, the ending was always going to be interesting. I had the Sharks to win by three so obviously when a series of penalties marched them down the field towards the Dragons’ try line, I was keen for them to slot one over but with one of the Welsh props on the naughty step I suppose I couldn’t fault them for kicking for the corner instead.
HARPIN' ON RUGBY 